Without a clear winner in Kabul, there is no apparent party with which the Taliban can negotiate. Therefore, intra-Afghan negotiations, crucial for the next step towards the peace force in Afghanistan, cannot take place. Afghan peace talks: The woman who negotiated with the Taliban diplomat who closely followed the peace process said the Taliban had been deliberately vague in defining their political vision. In an interview last year, I asked the group`s chief negotiator at the time, Abbas Stanikzai, if they would accept the democratic process. Leading journalist Farahnaz Forotan has launched the online campaign “My Red Line”, which highlights fragile individual freedoms, which many women believe should not be assembled. “The Taliban must accept the reality of Afghanistan today, if they don`t, these peace talks will not have a real result,” she told the BBC. The agreement is part of more than 18 months of peace talks – and nine rounds – involving Khalilzad, Taliban representatives, Afghan government delegations and many other special representatives or envoys from neighbouring or regional countries and international organizations. The signing of the agreement was preceded by a seven-day reduction in the violence agreement, seen as a test of the Taliban`s ability to control their armed forces. After nearly two decades of war and several stalled peace talks, the United States, the Afghan government and others are eager to see new peace efforts in Afghanistan.
However, peace is not guaranteed and many challenges remain, including the implementation of U.S. agreements with the Taliban and the Afghan government, the opening of viable internal talks and the resolution of systemic internal challenges in Afghanistan. The Taliban`s intransigence has contributed to the rise in violence. According to the U.S. Special Inspector for Afghanistan Reconstruction, the Taliban stepped up their attacks on Afghan forces following the February 2020 agreement. UN data showed similar trends. Taliban attacks in April 2020 increased by 25 percent from April 2019, with violence in 20 of the country`s 34 provinces. Third, a peace process that has collapsed or stopped and a nascent war could increase regional instability, with India, Pakistan, Iran and Russia supporting a mix of government forces, sub-state militias and insurgent groups. Some of these countries, such as Iran and Russia, are major competitors of the United States.
Strengthening Taliban control over Afghanistan and intensifying the activities of militant groups could also increase regional tensions between Nuclear power India and Pakistan. Tensions between the two sides have recently escalated, in part following the Indian government`s 2019 decision to lift the special status protected by the Jammu and Kashmir Constitution (which has brought some autonomy to the region), in accordance with Article 370 of the Indian Constitution, and to impose, at least temporarily, strict security measures in the Kashmir Valley. Under the Trump administration, the agreement signed between the United States and the Taliban paved the way for intra-Afghanistan peace talks between the Kabul government and the Doha Taliban. However, no tangible progress has been made in these talks in the Qatari capital since the launch on 12 September. Peace agreements generally have implementation mechanisms that make each party accountable for its commitments. This is not the case with the Taliban agreement. It contains no provision on what will happen if the Taliban break their promises, with the exception of the United States, which stops its withdrawal. The Qataris, who are hosting peace talks in Afghanistan, do not have the official power to push the parties to comply.